Navigating a course in turbulence

Keeping it simple

Hi there – Brian here

A client I worked with on a challenging project a few years ago had an interesting saying.

As we struggled to crash through hurdles and with a tight deadline looming, he would calmly remind me and the internal project team that:

‘we’re still building this aircraft as we take-off’.

What he was really saying to us, is that he understood it was hard.

He understood that there were real risks and difficult problems to wrestle with.

And he was validating that we had gotten this thing moving and off the ground.

Now, he was sending clear signals that the outcome was more important than perfection.

He expected us to double down and adapt quickly as we go.

The metaphor about building an aircraft during take-off was a new one to me, but I liked it.

As a consultant, it is tremendous when you have a client who is leaning into the work and risks with you. We persisted with that project and, with a good team and a splash of luck in the mix, achieved great results together - on time and on budget!

I thought of this experience when several readers and clients recently remarked how hard it is to filter signals from the noise today with the constant disruptions and uncertainties.

First up, it’s hard to ignore the chaos as markets bounce around wildly with every piece of news.

The scope and speed of the rapid-fire changes being announced and implemented by the new US administration are a case in point. Ignore them all at your peril.

We see the risk of large tariffs being applied on a few products and countries, and possibly on many in future.

Not to mention the turmoil as the US sheds DEI staff and shuts down programs while making radical cuts or reallocations to government budgets.

Leaders in the public and private sector are trying to guess what each piece of news means for economic growth, inflation and global trade.

Rather than looking at each piece of news, watch for the signals.

The US Presidential orders are signals - especially when visibly coupled with decisive implementation. An example is the immediate move for a shutdown of USAID, which is like a shockwave reshaping the landscape for development programs everywhere.

It is a signal for suppliers such as businesses and NGOs involved in the development system, that it is no longer business as usual.

In parallel, Google and Accenture are two of the latest businesses to end DEI programs and re-focus on merit. The hesitant steps of a few firms have now become a stampede as they scramble to align with the new imperatives.

Businesses and other organizations choosing to put merit first when selecting suppliers and employees are placing performance and excellence at the forefront.

These are the competitors who will be coming after your market.

You can’t predict how the external changes we’re seeing will unfold. What you can do is watch for opportunities and risks – both will exist amongst all the noise.

The real signal that it’s time to ramp up your own efforts to observe, orient, decide and act faster.

And be open to changing your mindset and priorities.

The past strategies, policies and crew that got you where you are today, may not get you where you need to be in future.

Staying competitive means honing skills for modifying your aircraft and adjusting its course at the same time.

It can be done!

Until next week

Insights from others…

“It is interesting how fashion filters down and we discover in the "Devil Wears Prada" that we're all prey to trends, even if we think we are not.” - Meryl Streep

“The fundamental work of investment management is filtering. The question is what do you filter?” - Donald Luskin

“The trouble with so many of us is that we underestimate the power of simplicity. We have a tendency it seems to over complicate our lives and forget what's important and what's not. We tend to mistake movement for achievement. We tend to focus on activities instead of results.” - Robert Stuberg.